San Mateo County April 2013 Choose a Different Area Trends At A Glance Apr 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year Median Home Price -1.1%$915,000 $925,000 +28.0%$715,000 Average Sales Price +0.1%$1,220,390 $1,219,370 +33.8%$912,341 No. of Homes Sold +22.3%434 355 -8.2%473 Pending Properties +7.6%577 536 -24.0%759 Foreclosures Sold +46.7%22 15 -59.3%54 Short Sales Sold -19.4%25 31 -65.3%72 Active Listings +20.4%549 456 -34.7%841 Active Foreclosures +66.7%10 6 -79.6%841 Active Short Sales +28.6%18 14 -84.9%119 Sales Price vs. List Price +0.9%105.7% 104.8% +5.3%100.4% Average Days on Market -18.3%26 32 -51.1%53 Market MomentumEnlarge Graph Graph loading... San Mateo County: Average Price for Homes Stays Over a Million The average price for single-family, re-sale homes has been over $1,000,000 for eleven of the past twelve months. It was up 33.8% year-over-year. The rapid decline in the number of bank-owned and short sales has been credited with moving the statistical pricing numbers up rapidly. There is something to be said for that theory. In January 2012, 40% of all homes sold were either bank-owned or short sales. Last month, that number was just over 10%. I expect as bank-owned and short sales become less of a factor in the market, price increases should start going back into single-digits. April Market Statistics Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 8.2% last month compared to April 2012. There were 434 homes sold. The average number of homes sold per month over the past ten years is 415. Inventory continues to be low. As of the fifth of the month, there were 549 homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale per month over the past ten years is 1,265. Pending home sales were down 24% year-over-year. That’s the sixth month in a row pending sales have been down, portending a slow first half in 2013. The median price for homes jumped 28% year-over-year. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past eleven months. The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for the past thirteen months. It was 105.7% in April, which is the highest the ratio has been since May 2005 when it was 106.2%. Sales Momentum… for homes dropped 2.8 points to –2.5. Pricing Momentum… has been on the up-swing the past eleven months. It gained 1.6 points to +16.2. Condo Statistics… The median price for condos was up 47.5% year-over-year. That’s twelve straight months the median price has been higher than the year before. The sales price to list price ratio for condos was 106.7%. That’s the highest it has been since April 2005 when it was 108.2%. Closed sales were up 3.1%, while pending sales fell 41.8%. Condo inventory was down 34.6% from last April. As of the 5th of the month, there were 123 condos for sale in the county. Mortgage Rate Outlook May 3, 2013 -- A cascade of fresh economic data came out this week, variously reflecting economic conditions in both March and April. A "big picture" look at the data might lead one to an "economy is still troubled" conclusion despite the current 2.5 percent run rate for Gross Domestic Product. Mortgage and other interest rates had been on a flat to easing trend for much of the week as most of the data did little to dispel the notion that we remain in a rough patch, one even the Federal Reserve implicitly acknowledged at the close of its meeting on Wednesday. There was plenty of downbeat news available this week to create additional cause for concern, but one or two shining reports took the gloom out of the market, at least for now. Mortgage rates are likely to rise somewhat next week as a result. HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased by four basis points (0.04%) to 3.61%, another new low for 2013 and close to "all-time" record lows set last year. The FRMI's 15-year companion dropped by three basis points (0.03%) to 2.86% for the week, another actual all-time low. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs followed along with a decline of two basis points (0.02%), falling to an average rate of 3.26% (record low by two basis points) and was accompanied by a three-hundredth of a percentage point slip in the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs, which trekked down to an average 2.57% - another new low water-mark for the most popular ARM. As far as interest rates go, it took an accumulation of fair economic news over a period of months and some considerable market optimism about the economy's future to bump them up during the late winter and early spring. That trend did an about face over the last six weeks or so as the economic news turned decidedly darker. Is the employment report the start of a new spate of solid news, or simply a bright spot in an otherwise dim sky? One report doesn't change the overall trend, buy may be enough to allay concern about a deeper downturn forming. For the moment, the brighter employment picture on Thursday and Friday was sufficient to cause a reversal in the decline in interest rates. The influential 10-year Treasury bounced upward by more than a tenth-percentage point on Friday, so it's to be expected that at least some of that will show in mortgage rates as we round into next week. Many popular mortgages have been easing to record (or near record lows) but will move away from them next week, when a 5 or 6 basis point rise in HSH's FRMI seems most likely. Foreclosure statistics Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Mateo County rose 7.7% in March from February. Year-over-year, notices were down 64.1%. Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, dropped 17.4% from February, and were down 63.5% year-over-year. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank. In March, cancellations were up 10.9% from February, but off 8.4% year-over-year. Properties going back to the bank dropped 11.1% in March from February. Year-over-year, the number of properties going back to the back was down 81.4%. The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed jumped 33.1% from February, but were down 23.9% compared to March 2012. The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 65.8% year-over-year The total number of properties owned by the bank was down 32.5% year-over-year. The banks now own approximately 691 properties in the county. Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Sales To DateEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph Graph loading..